“We decide what to believe by deciding who to believe.“ Arnold Kling
Similarly, I argue that we decide how devout to be by deciding how devout others will likely be.
There can be heavy pressure on LDS men to serve a mission. Serving a mission shows devotion. This added devotion is likely to result in marriage with a more devout spouse.
But what happens if devotion begins to fall among teenagers? What if teenagers get the sense that their peers are becoming less devout? What if apostasy is on the rise among the youth?
If serving a mission shows devotion, but the pool of candidate spouses is trending toward less devout, then a mission may worsen your marriage prospects, or more likely, be less worthwhile.
Missions are important devices for the devout or those wanting to be married to a devout spouse. But what if you don’t want to be married to a devout spouse?
Then serving a mission would be less beneficial.
Serving a mission has game theoretic qualities. See the Prisoner’s Dilemma.
The ultimate goal is not to be devout, but rather to pursue knowledge that will serve you and your future family best.
In summary, game theory in the context of identifying a spouse may help explain “What is driving the generational decline in LDS devotion, and does missionary service still strengthen devotion the way it used to?”
This is really interesting to think about. I think you are right that a motivator to serve a mission is the social signaling/marrying a similarly devout spouse. And, likewise, I think you are right that not serving a mission is perhaps less stigmatized than it used to be. I think it would be so interesting to survey young people say 17 year olds and track them for a few years. What are main factors/desires for missionary service? What are the most important qualities in a future spouse? Does not wanting to serve a mission drive people out of the church where they otherwise might stay?
Those are really good questions. There are many benefits to the church and to serving a mission, but the biggest in my opinion is the increased likelihood of marriage to a virtuous person.
In deciding whether to serve a mission, the question then becomes, is there a less costly way to marry that virtuous person? And once married, is there a less costly way of living than traditional devout ways? As we acquire more knowledge, we find better ways of doing things. If people can obtain equivalent or better results through a less costly alternative, they will tend to pursue the alternative.
It would be interesting to have the survey results you suggest. What might be some consequences of having and distributing such data? If people can understand the reasons for serving a mission, and can understand what they are looking for in a spouse, then perhaps members will discover innovative alternative ways to accomplish their goals.
What your Substack is doing and what your proposed survey results would provide is common knowledge.
“According to bestselling author and Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker, it all comes down to common knowledge, or the phenomenon that happens when everyone knows that everyone else knows something. Hear Pinker and EconTalk's Russ Roberts explore the necessary conditions for that knowledge, and how it can be both vital and dangerous to societies, depending on how it's used. They discuss, among other things, game-theory puzzles, how laughter spreads, how totalitarian regimes exploit uncertainty about who knows what (even when they don't), and why we often don't say explicitly what we really mean to say.”
I would like to see stats on early returning missionaries. I don’t feel like there has been transparency from the Church on this issue. I would like to state that there is nothing wrong or any shame in coming home early. We need to accept that different people have different experiences and support and love them.
“We decide what to believe by deciding who to believe.“ Arnold Kling
Similarly, I argue that we decide how devout to be by deciding how devout others will likely be.
There can be heavy pressure on LDS men to serve a mission. Serving a mission shows devotion. This added devotion is likely to result in marriage with a more devout spouse.
But what happens if devotion begins to fall among teenagers? What if teenagers get the sense that their peers are becoming less devout? What if apostasy is on the rise among the youth?
If serving a mission shows devotion, but the pool of candidate spouses is trending toward less devout, then a mission may worsen your marriage prospects, or more likely, be less worthwhile.
Missions are important devices for the devout or those wanting to be married to a devout spouse. But what if you don’t want to be married to a devout spouse?
Then serving a mission would be less beneficial.
Serving a mission has game theoretic qualities. See the Prisoner’s Dilemma.
The ultimate goal is not to be devout, but rather to pursue knowledge that will serve you and your future family best.
In summary, game theory in the context of identifying a spouse may help explain “What is driving the generational decline in LDS devotion, and does missionary service still strengthen devotion the way it used to?”
This is really interesting to think about. I think you are right that a motivator to serve a mission is the social signaling/marrying a similarly devout spouse. And, likewise, I think you are right that not serving a mission is perhaps less stigmatized than it used to be. I think it would be so interesting to survey young people say 17 year olds and track them for a few years. What are main factors/desires for missionary service? What are the most important qualities in a future spouse? Does not wanting to serve a mission drive people out of the church where they otherwise might stay?
Those are really good questions. There are many benefits to the church and to serving a mission, but the biggest in my opinion is the increased likelihood of marriage to a virtuous person.
In deciding whether to serve a mission, the question then becomes, is there a less costly way to marry that virtuous person? And once married, is there a less costly way of living than traditional devout ways? As we acquire more knowledge, we find better ways of doing things. If people can obtain equivalent or better results through a less costly alternative, they will tend to pursue the alternative.
It would be interesting to have the survey results you suggest. What might be some consequences of having and distributing such data? If people can understand the reasons for serving a mission, and can understand what they are looking for in a spouse, then perhaps members will discover innovative alternative ways to accomplish their goals.
What your Substack is doing and what your proposed survey results would provide is common knowledge.
“According to bestselling author and Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker, it all comes down to common knowledge, or the phenomenon that happens when everyone knows that everyone else knows something. Hear Pinker and EconTalk's Russ Roberts explore the necessary conditions for that knowledge, and how it can be both vital and dangerous to societies, depending on how it's used. They discuss, among other things, game-theory puzzles, how laughter spreads, how totalitarian regimes exploit uncertainty about who knows what (even when they don't), and why we often don't say explicitly what we really mean to say.”
https://www.econtalk.org/steven-pinker-on-common-knowledge/
Thanks for linking. Legitimately very excited to listen!
I would like to see stats on early returning missionaries. I don’t feel like there has been transparency from the Church on this issue. I would like to state that there is nothing wrong or any shame in coming home early. We need to accept that different people have different experiences and support and love them.
I agree this would be interesting to see. I'll see if I can find anything related to this, but I'd think this data would be difficult to obtain/find.