To re-frame the question, why were 18-30 year olds the MOST devout in 2008-2012? I think the old model was that we could assume families were a strong influence of devotion, but that as kids started to find their own path, especially around 18, a fraction would lose their grip on the iron rod. This data might suggest something is changing about families and childhood. Maybe family or child-raising patterns are changing? Or something different in the school environment? Is it that kids have cell phones and social media?
I like the way you reframed it. It's true the US Christian trend is the opposite (increasing in devotion with age), so it is a striking question. I suspect missions play a role in the youngest being the MOST devout. And, as far as the decline, I think your suggestions seem reasonable and raise more interesting questions... Has the home centered focus worked?
Thinking about your comment I just wrote the post for next week about "Are missions still effective in increasing the devotion of the missionary" seeing some of the age differences over time.
My wife suggested maybe the more tolerant approach of the church these days may mean more young people who become less devout still feel comfortable saying they are members of the Church whereas they might have dropped out in previous generations.
I think the Information Age has a lot to do with the change, as someone who was in the 18-30 cohort in 2008. There have also been lots of church changes, resulting in less community spirit, I feel like. Roadshows, pageants, green and gold balls, three hours of church … many of these are just completely gone. More information and historical context, less community - more difficulty being devout to a difficult institution
This isn't disagreement with the numbers or the results, but I'd like to push back against the words "devotion" and "devout." Almost everyone I've shown your recent stats too---including very devout people, eg, my stake president---don't see themselves in the generalized descriptions of category. In other words (and I know this is beyond the scope of what you're doing) but I think the manner in which actual devotion manifests may not be measured according to extant standards. Devotion, in other words, may not be the same in the world as it is on the graph.
This is a fantastic and incredibly important point. Thank you.
You are 100% correct, and you've hit on the classic challenge of all social science: the difference between an abstract concept (like 'devotion') and the specific definition we have to use to measure it (the survey questions).
Your stake president is right—a person can be deeply devout without fitting my specific 3-part index (limited by the only 3 religious questions available in the survey). My chart isn't measuring all devotion; it's measuring a specific index of traditional observance.
What I find meaningful, and what the story is for me, is that the number of people who fit this specific, high-observance definition is declining. It suggests a change in how people are practicing their faith, even if their internal devotion (which we can't measure) is different.
You've given me a great idea: I'll add a methodological note to future posts (and at the top of this one) to make this distinction clearer. I really appreciate the thoughtful feedback!
Love the analysis Alex! I've wondered if the church is intentionally making things easier because the newer generations won't put up with the things prior generations did... so many other reasons also.
I just started Substack, and I like seeing some of the advocacy and awakening many of us experience. I just subscribed :) Be well
The church, and a few leaders, have been more forthright about past teachings and some doctrine. Those raised in highly conservative and culturally based LDS homes might ask, if that changed, then what else WILL change? And, since it has changed, then what is revelation? As a result we see a trend identified as stress of spiritually related questions put on a shelf. Some shelves have broken, some are weighed down, some are near a breaking point. Today’s young members, especially from devout conservative LDS homes, are less likely to just accept what they are told to believe and accept. They see religion and spirituality as separate identities. It might not be the religion as much as it is the public perception of the church and how it deals with issues that are really important to them. Liberals are already there.
Science often cannot answer “why questions.” We don’t know why light is emitted from accelerating electrons; we just know that’s what happens. We don’t know exactly why millions of men decided to fight in the American Civil War. In interviews, I cannot even explain exactly why I left my last job. Understanding is beyond our reach.
Revelation can help us understand because revelation is a low-information process for acquiring greater knowledge. This doesn’t mean that science cannot be of immense help, but sometimes science gets in the way. Sometimes poorly considered revelation gets in the way.
Why are younger generations less devout? Because the universe is changing, and the Church isn’t keeping up. As individuals improve, learn, and grow, the Church should too. The Church needs a constitution of liberty that allows it to evolve just as America has a Constitution of liberty that allows it to evolve. Does the constitution of your church provide its members with enough freedom to innovate? Are their innovations incorporated into the repository of useful knowledge maintained by the Church?
Perhaps they feel that they will be better off by being less devout. In other words, devotion is increasingly costly in time and energy relative to its benefits. Time for some update. Prophets, whataya got?
To re-frame the question, why were 18-30 year olds the MOST devout in 2008-2012? I think the old model was that we could assume families were a strong influence of devotion, but that as kids started to find their own path, especially around 18, a fraction would lose their grip on the iron rod. This data might suggest something is changing about families and childhood. Maybe family or child-raising patterns are changing? Or something different in the school environment? Is it that kids have cell phones and social media?
I like the way you reframed it. It's true the US Christian trend is the opposite (increasing in devotion with age), so it is a striking question. I suspect missions play a role in the youngest being the MOST devout. And, as far as the decline, I think your suggestions seem reasonable and raise more interesting questions... Has the home centered focus worked?
Thinking about your comment I just wrote the post for next week about "Are missions still effective in increasing the devotion of the missionary" seeing some of the age differences over time.
My wife suggested maybe the more tolerant approach of the church these days may mean more young people who become less devout still feel comfortable saying they are members of the Church whereas they might have dropped out in previous generations.
I like your wife's hypothesis and I think it's true. There's a growing proportion of 'never/seldom' church attenders that identify as LDS.
I think the Information Age has a lot to do with the change, as someone who was in the 18-30 cohort in 2008. There have also been lots of church changes, resulting in less community spirit, I feel like. Roadshows, pageants, green and gold balls, three hours of church … many of these are just completely gone. More information and historical context, less community - more difficulty being devout to a difficult institution
.
This isn't disagreement with the numbers or the results, but I'd like to push back against the words "devotion" and "devout." Almost everyone I've shown your recent stats too---including very devout people, eg, my stake president---don't see themselves in the generalized descriptions of category. In other words (and I know this is beyond the scope of what you're doing) but I think the manner in which actual devotion manifests may not be measured according to extant standards. Devotion, in other words, may not be the same in the world as it is on the graph.
This is a fantastic and incredibly important point. Thank you.
You are 100% correct, and you've hit on the classic challenge of all social science: the difference between an abstract concept (like 'devotion') and the specific definition we have to use to measure it (the survey questions).
Your stake president is right—a person can be deeply devout without fitting my specific 3-part index (limited by the only 3 religious questions available in the survey). My chart isn't measuring all devotion; it's measuring a specific index of traditional observance.
What I find meaningful, and what the story is for me, is that the number of people who fit this specific, high-observance definition is declining. It suggests a change in how people are practicing their faith, even if their internal devotion (which we can't measure) is different.
You've given me a great idea: I'll add a methodological note to future posts (and at the top of this one) to make this distinction clearer. I really appreciate the thoughtful feedback!
.
Thanks, Alex. I think you're right that this is not something everyone understands.
Make stats literacy a high-school graduation requirement!
Wow I wouldn’t have guessed that the decline for republicans was so much sharper. I guess Democrats were already pretty low. Fascinating
Ya along with what you said, I think there is plenty of room to decline for Republicans whereas Democrats may have hit a floor 🤷♂️
Love the analysis Alex! I've wondered if the church is intentionally making things easier because the newer generations won't put up with the things prior generations did... so many other reasons also.
I just started Substack, and I like seeing some of the advocacy and awakening many of us experience. I just subscribed :) Be well
The church, and a few leaders, have been more forthright about past teachings and some doctrine. Those raised in highly conservative and culturally based LDS homes might ask, if that changed, then what else WILL change? And, since it has changed, then what is revelation? As a result we see a trend identified as stress of spiritually related questions put on a shelf. Some shelves have broken, some are weighed down, some are near a breaking point. Today’s young members, especially from devout conservative LDS homes, are less likely to just accept what they are told to believe and accept. They see religion and spirituality as separate identities. It might not be the religion as much as it is the public perception of the church and how it deals with issues that are really important to them. Liberals are already there.
Science often cannot answer “why questions.” We don’t know why light is emitted from accelerating electrons; we just know that’s what happens. We don’t know exactly why millions of men decided to fight in the American Civil War. In interviews, I cannot even explain exactly why I left my last job. Understanding is beyond our reach.
Revelation can help us understand because revelation is a low-information process for acquiring greater knowledge. This doesn’t mean that science cannot be of immense help, but sometimes science gets in the way. Sometimes poorly considered revelation gets in the way.
Why are younger generations less devout? Because the universe is changing, and the Church isn’t keeping up. As individuals improve, learn, and grow, the Church should too. The Church needs a constitution of liberty that allows it to evolve just as America has a Constitution of liberty that allows it to evolve. Does the constitution of your church provide its members with enough freedom to innovate? Are their innovations incorporated into the repository of useful knowledge maintained by the Church?
Perhaps they feel that they will be better off by being less devout. In other words, devotion is increasingly costly in time and energy relative to its benefits. Time for some update. Prophets, whataya got?
whattheygot???? GET THEJAB!!!! CLEAN THE CHAPEL!! PAY YER TEMPLE TICKET ADMISSION PRICE !!! AND KEEP YER MOUTH SHUT !!!!
We can all do better Mr. Parker. At least, I still have much room for improvement.
yes. and ditto here as well.