Great data. Good to see missionary work rebounding at a high rate!
The TFR (total fertility rate) per woman for LDS was estimated to be 3.3 in 1981 (almost double the US average of 1.8). Today it’s probably around 2-ish. That’s a decline but not a 5x drop.
Hi Amanda - thats a great point! I think you are right. I made a plot about this a few weeks ago. Since 2005, the nonmarried Mormon population has grown (see the third chart in this post) which includes single, never married adults like you mention.
Your analysis seems right to me. I consider the LDS (in sociology terms) to be a high-tension religious group. Your lifestyles are in tension with mainstream society. Other high-tension religious groups have flatlined since the arrival of the internet. I'd thought that the LDS had flatlined in the US too (correct me if I'm wrong).
The exceptions are high-tension religious groups who limit members use of electronic media. All of the high-tension religious groups who do that are still growing rapidly, mostly through high birthrates and high retention rates. It's worth noting that Garrett Jones (LDS Economist at George Mason) has the same theory.
I'm slowly putting together a fuller explanation of this trend (beyond LDS) with all the data. It's challenging in part because many tech-resisting groups don't do online surveys.
This is the official global church data. Looking at YoY, Cooperative Election Study data (US only) the number of people who identify as Mormon seems to be decreasing slowly.
The "Seeking the Promised Land" book by Campbell, Green, and Monson describes LDS in a two front war: one with secularism (the tension you describe with mainstream society) and one with other religions. Since most LDS when they leave, go to "no religion" I'd say the greater war is the one with secularism.
I hadn't heard of the connection with technology. Do you have anything I can read to learn more about this theory? Could you give examples of the tech resisting groups? (In the US at least) I am thinking of Amish related groups? Perhaps FLDS?
You probably haven't heard the connection because it hasn't been written about in a major publication. The data I mentioned isn't that easy to get.
Groups like that include Old Order Mennonites, Amish, Bruderhof, Hutterites, Haredi Jews, and some Catholic orders (who don't have birthrates). Most of these other groups started resisting technology during the late 1800s, when the individualistic and materialistic "Refinement" movement was taking off in the US. That timing is why the Amish don't use cars or landline phones, and why clothing rules are so central.
It seems to me that we're in a similar place now with the internet and AI, and I suspect it's time for another round of tech-resisters. Especially since that seems to be the only thing that's "working."
Ok that makes sense. I like the idea of different levels of tech resisters. I'd love to read research on things like "what are the different levels" "how many people are at each level" "how does behavior like voting or other community participation metrics vary by each level". I'll keep an eye out for your future posts since you mentioned you are working on things similar.
Great data. Good to see missionary work rebounding at a high rate!
The TFR (total fertility rate) per woman for LDS was estimated to be 3.3 in 1981 (almost double the US average of 1.8). Today it’s probably around 2-ish. That’s a decline but not a 5x drop.
I'm looking for more resources on trying to understand LDS birthrates. Do you have any recommendations for me or places I might try and find things?
I saw these numbers here: https://www.geocurrents.info/blog/2025/01/16/utahs-declining-fertility-rate-and-the-changing-mormon-church/
but I don’t have any specific domain knowledge in this area. I remember seeing this get circulated around a couple years ago: https://x.com/leopoldasch/status/1470440872810450948?s=46
Thanks!
Hi Amanda - thats a great point! I think you are right. I made a plot about this a few weeks ago. Since 2005, the nonmarried Mormon population has grown (see the third chart in this post) which includes single, never married adults like you mention.
https://mormonmetrics.substack.com/p/part-4-two-future-problems-to-confront
Thank you for this!
Thanks for reading!
Is this looking just at the US, or globally?
Your analysis seems right to me. I consider the LDS (in sociology terms) to be a high-tension religious group. Your lifestyles are in tension with mainstream society. Other high-tension religious groups have flatlined since the arrival of the internet. I'd thought that the LDS had flatlined in the US too (correct me if I'm wrong).
The exceptions are high-tension religious groups who limit members use of electronic media. All of the high-tension religious groups who do that are still growing rapidly, mostly through high birthrates and high retention rates. It's worth noting that Garrett Jones (LDS Economist at George Mason) has the same theory.
I'm slowly putting together a fuller explanation of this trend (beyond LDS) with all the data. It's challenging in part because many tech-resisting groups don't do online surveys.
This is the official global church data. Looking at YoY, Cooperative Election Study data (US only) the number of people who identify as Mormon seems to be decreasing slowly.
The "Seeking the Promised Land" book by Campbell, Green, and Monson describes LDS in a two front war: one with secularism (the tension you describe with mainstream society) and one with other religions. Since most LDS when they leave, go to "no religion" I'd say the greater war is the one with secularism.
I hadn't heard of the connection with technology. Do you have anything I can read to learn more about this theory? Could you give examples of the tech resisting groups? (In the US at least) I am thinking of Amish related groups? Perhaps FLDS?
You probably haven't heard the connection because it hasn't been written about in a major publication. The data I mentioned isn't that easy to get.
Groups like that include Old Order Mennonites, Amish, Bruderhof, Hutterites, Haredi Jews, and some Catholic orders (who don't have birthrates). Most of these other groups started resisting technology during the late 1800s, when the individualistic and materialistic "Refinement" movement was taking off in the US. That timing is why the Amish don't use cars or landline phones, and why clothing rules are so central.
It seems to me that we're in a similar place now with the internet and AI, and I suspect it's time for another round of tech-resisters. Especially since that seems to be the only thing that's "working."
Ok that makes sense. I like the idea of different levels of tech resisters. I'd love to read research on things like "what are the different levels" "how many people are at each level" "how does behavior like voting or other community participation metrics vary by each level". I'll keep an eye out for your future posts since you mentioned you are working on things similar.