Are Mormons Conspiracy Theorists? A Look at Vaccines, Stolen Elections, and QAnon
Using 2021 survey data, we explore how Mormons responded to pandemic conspiracies and election denial—and how they compare to other faiths.
Introduction
TL;DR Nearly 1 in 2 Mormons believed the 2020 election was stolen — far more than the general public. But unlike other religious conservatives, Mormons don’t show elevated belief in other conspiracy theories. Why? I argue this reflects not conspiratorial thinking, but deep distrust in American government — a distrust rooted in history, theology, and recent events.
I started this week thinking I’d write about Mormon vaccine skepticism. The first survey I looked at suggested Mormons were the most anti-vax religious group. But when I found a broader dataset with triple the sample size, that story collapsed: Mormons are average on vaccines. Same for QAnon, COVID microchips, and other conspiracies I looked at.
Then I noticed an outlier: belief in the stolen 2020 election. Here, Mormons spike. And that led me to a much more interesting question — and, I think, a better story.
Charts
Let’s first go through my process together starting with Vaccines…
Like I mentioned, Mormons are about as likely to be anti-vaxers as the US population. Evangelical and Other Christians are the leading groups for anti-vaxing, and Jews, Hindus, and Unitarians are on the other end.
Now let’s look at a few conspiracy theories…
Mormons are about as likely as the US population overall to believe in the QAnon conspiracy, “COVID was created intentionally”, and “covid is actually a government surveillance microchip”. Just like Mormons were about as likely to refuse the vaccine as the US overall population.
Then I came across the stolen election data which raised questions…
Nearly half of Mormons agreed the 2020 election was stolen - 16 points higher than the U.S. average, and close to Evangelicals.. To me, that at face value is a crazy stat. Though Evangelicals are higher, 1 in 2 Mormons believing in a stolen election in 2020 is something I would have never guessed to see 5 or 10 years prior to this survey.
So with this an interesting question surfaces…
Why do Mormons not really believe the other conspiracy theories, but are more likely to believe in the stolen election?
You may say “Mormons are just more republican and so that’s why they believe the election was stolen.” To this I would respond that yes its true Mormons are more Republican; however, Republicans were correlated with believing all the conspiracy theories, yet Mormons did not believe them more than the US population but do believe more in the stolen election. So, something else is going on.
Let’s look at a few more survey questions…
In this chart we see that Mormons are the most likely group to believe that the recent “American Chaos” is evidence that we are living in the end of times. 70% of Mormons agree with this vs. only 33% of the population. A gigantic gap - even among some other christian religious groups.
Indeed, the first interesting thing about this chart is other religions (excluding Evangelicals) do not feel the same “end of times” belief as Mormons do!
The other interesting thing is so many Mormons implicitly accepting one key idea in that statement. If you believe the “American Chaos” is evidence that we are in the end of times, you also believe in the “American chaos.”
Mormons have an interesting relationship with America and the constitution. On one hand, they believe that the constitution is inspired, but there is also talk/rumor of a certain prophecy that one day the “American constitution will hang by a thread.” Which implies the government will be in a state of doom/chaos despite its inspired roots.
Perhaps Mormons see today’s government as already in chaos — and simply don’t trust it to act in their interest.
This chart is another signal of Mormon government distrust. Mormons agree that many policies and mandates from COVID are “unreasonable” attempts to control people. In our survey, Mormons were THE most agreeable religious group to this statement - even higher than Evangelicals! A government that is “unreasonable” and “attempts to control people” doesn’t seem very trustworthy. And one last chart from the 2024 Cooperative Elections study…
To me, the reason 1 in 2 Mormons believed the election was stolen is not a story about Mormons being conspiracy theorists, but rather is a story about low government trust. And who can blame them, Mormons have had a rocky relationship at times with the US (a certain Missouri order comes to mind and I’m sure you can think of other examples throughout the years). If America is in a state of chaos and the constitution is hanging by a thread, why couldn’t an election be stolen.
Let me know if you have thoughts or comments below. Do you agree with my theory? Why or why not?
See you next week!