The CES captures a single time point, not longitudinal, correct? I assume the sharp LDS increase during the 20’s is at least partly due to disaffiliation of people who are less devout. And the positive correlation with age also surely reflects broader generational cultural differences. Any thoughts on how to directly test the effect on *individuals*?
This is a good point. I think we would also need to test whether it is a generational effect rather than a static age effect.
On the disaffiliation question - we don’t see the bump in the US Christian data, but we do in the LDS data. Is LDS disaffiliation higher or more localized at a certain age than for non-LDS Christians? I wouldn’t think so. This leads me to think the “bump” isn’t due to disaffiliation, but it would be nice to show that with the data.
If we wanted to improve this study, having longitudinal data like you suggest would be a great way, so we could track disaffiliated and have a more causal interpretation. This data is cross sectional, but it is pooled cross sectional data from the last 16 years. So we get the 18yo last year as well as the 18yo from 2008 who is now 34. This helps strengthen the argument against generational effects. Overall though I do think missionary service provides the most plausible explanation for the bump especially when comparing to US Christians over the same time period.
Disaffection/disaffiliation of those less devout would also reflect in non-LDS Christian young adults. Perhaps more granular datasets such a corollary might appear but it doesn’t seem to in Alex’s view.
The real question is whether missions increase devotion, or whether they merely filter out those with low devotion. For example, would a mission still increase devotion if you compared mission-goers with people who wanted to go but couldn't for health reasons?
Ya I think this is one of the most reasonable competing theory with these data. Does a mission really "cause" devotion or just filter people out? Though in both theories, missionary service is a reason for the bump.
I would like to see a female member chart of those who did not go on a mission. We start at a very early age indoctrinating young people to make a commitment to the religion. I’m not saying that’s bad but it is a lot different than most religions. This is also perpetuated by the fact that a lot of parents came from the same mode or, as new members, feel the need to jump in with both feet; all or nothing. How do you compare apples to apples? Is the commitment based on religious conviction or expectation conviction? This raises so many questions for me.
The CES captures a single time point, not longitudinal, correct? I assume the sharp LDS increase during the 20’s is at least partly due to disaffiliation of people who are less devout. And the positive correlation with age also surely reflects broader generational cultural differences. Any thoughts on how to directly test the effect on *individuals*?
This is a good point. I think we would also need to test whether it is a generational effect rather than a static age effect.
On the disaffiliation question - we don’t see the bump in the US Christian data, but we do in the LDS data. Is LDS disaffiliation higher or more localized at a certain age than for non-LDS Christians? I wouldn’t think so. This leads me to think the “bump” isn’t due to disaffiliation, but it would be nice to show that with the data.
Both great comments.
If we wanted to improve this study, having longitudinal data like you suggest would be a great way, so we could track disaffiliated and have a more causal interpretation. This data is cross sectional, but it is pooled cross sectional data from the last 16 years. So we get the 18yo last year as well as the 18yo from 2008 who is now 34. This helps strengthen the argument against generational effects. Overall though I do think missionary service provides the most plausible explanation for the bump especially when comparing to US Christians over the same time period.
Disaffection/disaffiliation of those less devout would also reflect in non-LDS Christian young adults. Perhaps more granular datasets such a corollary might appear but it doesn’t seem to in Alex’s view.
The real question is whether missions increase devotion, or whether they merely filter out those with low devotion. For example, would a mission still increase devotion if you compared mission-goers with people who wanted to go but couldn't for health reasons?
Ya I think this is one of the most reasonable competing theory with these data. Does a mission really "cause" devotion or just filter people out? Though in both theories, missionary service is a reason for the bump.
I would like to see a female member chart of those who did not go on a mission. We start at a very early age indoctrinating young people to make a commitment to the religion. I’m not saying that’s bad but it is a lot different than most religions. This is also perpetuated by the fact that a lot of parents came from the same mode or, as new members, feel the need to jump in with both feet; all or nothing. How do you compare apples to apples? Is the commitment based on religious conviction or expectation conviction? This raises so many questions for me.