BYU Vs. Utah Prediction 👀
Looking At The Last 100 Years Of The Holy War
Yes, I published this one a day or two early, so it could circulate before the game Saturday! Will continue with the normal Friday release schedule.
Introduction
The Holy War of football is upon us again - this Saturday. It’s been a few years since the 2021 match up with BYU winning with a final score of 26 - 17. While BYU may have won the last game, they lost the 9 before that...
According to ESPN’s predictions for the game, BYU is favored to win with a 60% chance. On one hand, BYU has had a phenomenal season and could easily beat Utah’s mediocre one, but on the other, Utah is a strong program and anything can happen in a rivalry game.
In honor of the rivalry, I want to look at some historical data specifically about this match-up: BYU vs. Utah. The BYU football website has data dating back 100 years! So, I scraped the data and made a few charts. Let’s dive in!
Did you know BYU has played Utah almost every year (90+ games) over the last 100 years? The first game I found was back in 1922!
Charts
Question: Which team has won more games overall? What are the score differences?
Our first chart is a timeline over the last 100 years. Red is a Utah win and Blue is a BYU win. You will also notice there are tie games early on (in yellow) and years where the teams didn’t play each other (in black).
Did you know? Utah has won 2/3 of the match-ups with BYU? Looking at the time line, the trend is clear. There was a clear rise in BYU Football quality in the 70s and 80s. During these years, they were consistently more likely to beat out Utah. However, from this chart, it looks like in recent years that quality has faded - losing 9 out of the last 10 games 😬. This, of course, only shows one game and doesn’t represent each season as a whole.
Fun fact: I learned that during WWII BYU shut down football for a few years in the mid 1940s. This can be seen by the black lines during that time period.
Now, let’s look at the same chart, but by difference in points scored. I subtracted Utah points scored from BYU’s below.
Wow, you can see the trend even clearer! Utah clearly started out the better team, but over time BYU gained ground peaking in the early-mid 1980s. Since that time, we have seen Utah gradually score more points each game.
On the bright side for BYU, the last few years haven’t seen as stark of point differentials - Utah only winning by a few points the last several games. Much more evenly matched compared to the period before 1970 😂.
Next question: Is there a home field advantage for the match up?
The answer to this question is simple: YES! BYU has won 14 percentage points more of games when @ home. On average, they have scored one touchdown + extra point (7 points) more @ home compared to @ Utah. So, yes they have a home team advantage which will make the upcoming game more interesting since it is @ Utah.
Conclusion
So, what is my prediction? I definitely think it will be a close and exciting game, but I predict Utah will win. BYU won’t have home field advantage which will hurt them. Also, it’s hard to keep an undefeated streak, and I think Utah will get in their head being their rival.
If you enjoyed this article, stay tuned (and share)! I am planning on writing a few more related articles in the future such as:
Who was the best BYU football coach of all time?
What years were the best BYU football teams - ranked?
Perhaps something with the players? What is demographic break-up? How many are native Utahns?
Also, let me know in the comments if there is another topic - football or otherwise - you would be interested in…